The Libyan Emergency

I find the lack of forethought on the part of some very senior politicians extremely alarming.

Now that we (NATO) have intervened Gaddafi simply must be removed. His forces dwarf those of the rebels and any continued conflict will inevitably lead to his victory and the massacre of anyone who didn't actively support him. As has been proved amply in the past air power alone cannot win wars and will simply prolong the conflict slightly by removing the more powerful elements of Gaddafi's army. He still has overwhelming manpower however and once distributed among civilians this cannot be bombed.

If the current NATO policy is continued the best possible case is a permanent stand-off, effectively splitting Libya into two halves and requiring the constant presence of NATO forces along the border. What place would West Libya hold in the world afterwards? No western state and none of the arab league states would be able to have any dealings with it and they would probably be under permanent total embargo (at vast expense to everyone). Anything less than best-possible would mean Gaddafi's eventual retaking of Benghazi.

If NATO is banking on Gaddafi being usurped by his own followers they are very naive. The most likely time for this to happen was in the first few days of the revolution. The more time passes and the more Tripoli is bombed the more his support will solidify.

Any scenario that ends with Gaddafi alive (other than exile in North Korea) is going to fail the Libyan people. The more the conflict is dragged out the more people will die and the more likely Gaddafi is to remain in power. The life of one extremely dangerous madman is surely worth that of thousands of ordinary Libyans? One single missile could obviate the need for thousands of sorties and save thousands of lives (not to mention billions of dollars).